| HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED. AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING ABOUT 31 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IF THERE IS A FURTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 35.2N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 39.6N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 46.7N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 54.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011 ...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 65.6W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOR. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF AVALON PENINSULA THIS EVENING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN |