some random outlooks
Posted by cypresstx on 10/4/2011, 3:14 pm
Global Tropical Hazards Outlook  updated today  




Jim's 10/01 update mentions a higher threat in western caribbean  http://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanecitydotcom


Sudduth had a good weekly outlook video yesterday & post today also  http://www.hurricanetrack.com/  http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/17664182


Masters mentions Florida chances next week  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=1949

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.
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some random outlooks - cypresstx, 10/4/2011, 3:14 pm
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