Re: Soggy, soggy, soggy and maybe Super?
Posted by canetrakker on 10/18/2011, 12:45 pm
Tornado Watch likely soon for South Fla.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1115 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN FL
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 181615Z - 181745Z
 
  A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN
  AND CNTRL FL WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
  RESPONSE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
  SRN FL PENINSULA AND POSSIBLE PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE 17Z TO 18Z
  TIMEFRAME
 
  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE NERN GULF OF
  MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WRN COAST OF FL THIS
  AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW...A WELL-DEFINED 35 TO 45 KT
  JET NEAR 850 MB WILL MOVE INTO SRN FL RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
  AROUND 2.50 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD BASES AS A
  DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE JET MAX WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
  OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
  SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
  FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND EMBEDDED IN THE
  LINE ITSELF WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED
  TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES ACROSS
  SCNTRL FL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
  BOWING-SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
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Soggy, soggy, soggy and maybe Super? - Skip Wiley, 10/18/2011, 11:45 am
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