Re: Soggy, soggy, soggy and maybe Super?
Posted by
canetrakker on 10/18/2011, 12:45 pm
Tornado Watch likely soon for South Fla.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181615Z - 181745Z A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. IN RESPONSE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND POSSIBLE PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE 17Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WRN COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW...A WELL-DEFINED 35 TO 45 KT JET NEAR 850 MB WILL MOVE INTO SRN FL RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD BASES AS A DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE JET MAX WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ITSELF WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL FL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING-SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
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