| That would be this invest: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2011&storm=94&investstart=0901 Invest 94L, peaked at 35 knots at the time You can view satellite imagery and NHC discussions in the NHC Graphical Outlook Archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201109011155/index.php?basin=atl¤t_issuance=201109011155 Click "Later ›" to view later outlooks. It had a 50% chance with "ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM." and later after a decrease to 40% it was raised to 60%. Looking at the satellite imagery, it did look pretty good briefly. They knew it had winds of tropical storm force at the time. ----------- ----------- ----------- I also so this on the NHC front page about some historical reanalysis: "New Record Holder for Latest Hurricane in the Season to Strike U.S. Coastline Thanks to evidence found as part of the Atlantic hurricane database reanalysis project, there is a new record holder for the latest hurricane in a season to ever to strike the United States coastline. The new record is Hurricane Kate, which struck the Florida panhandle on November 21, 1985, as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The old record was held by a Category 1 hurricane which struck southwest Florida on December 1, 1925. During the last several years, meteorologists at NOAA's National Hurricane Center and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division have been reanalyzing historic hurricanes, using today's analysis techniques to reassess the track and peak winds of these cyclones. As part of the reanalysis effort, new observations were obtained that showed that the December 1, 1925, system did not reach hurricane intensity, and the system was officially downgraded to a tropical storm. For more about the Atlantic hurricane database reanalysis project, please see: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html " From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20111118_pa_latestLandfall.pdf |