Re: In response to the Atlantic...
Posted by
weatherwindow on 5/13/2012, 10:59 am
| I think you are confusing the timeframes involved...the Tropical Weather Discussion from the NHC refers to the current situation out to 72-96 hours. The development I mentioned and noted in the longrange models such as the CMC(GGEM), the ECMRF and the GFS, refer to activity beginning out around 204 hours out to 240 hrs and even out to 384hrs(GFS). If those forecasts verify, you will not begin to see them referred to in the Tropical WeatherDiscussion until a week hence. That is the reason that long range forecasts are so typically low confidence. The reason I mention the longrange results at all is that we are beginning to see some dovetailling of these solutions, some agreement among the models. It makes the possibility of development logically more realistic.......Rich |
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GFS predicts Beryl :) -
weatherwindow,
5/12/2012, 4:20 pm Post A Reply
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