Re: Bay of Campeche/Yucatan
Posted by cypresstx on 6/4/2012, 12:51 pm
local nws discussions up & down the coast here are mentioning a low moving into tx & the high finally departing, then meandering around for quite a while - we will actually have rain this week !

this is from a harris co flood control met:

Upper level high pressure which has been anchored over the region for several weeks will break down starting late today while a plume of deep tropical moisture currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and SE Gulf of Mexico moves northwest and inland along the TX coast tonight/Tuesday. An upper level low currently located in NE MX will move NNE into central TX on Tuesday as the ridging aloft breaks down into a mid level height field weakness over TX. The weakening ridge aloft combined with the transport of a tropical air mass into the region would in itself support a decent chance of rainfall along the seabreeze each afternoonand this should begin on Tuesday.



Tropical air mass becomes entangled into the upper level low which will be located over NC TX by Wednesday and this feature appears to gradually become somewhat warm core "tropical" given the abundance of tropical moisture in a weak upper level wind field. With PWS climbing to near 2 standard deviations above normal across central and northern TX and near the 99th percentile across SE TX (PWS of 1.75-2.0 inches by late week) concern is grown that this feature will begin to affect much like a warm core tropical system with excessive rainfall focused near the center during the overnight hours. Extremely weak wind fields will make for slow storm motions and with a tropical air column overhead, expect some really hefty rainfall totals for the end of the week. For now with the main upper/mid level system remaining west of our region, suspect any of the really big flooding rainfall may be just W/NW of our region, but SE TX will lie in the favorable inflow region off the Gulf. This system is looking similar to the warm core lows of the summer of 2007 which produced devastating flooding rainfall across portions of NC TX. Will take a closer look on Tuesday and start to determine possible rainfall amounts for the middle to end of the week.



Wet pattern looks to linger on into the weekend and even into next week with the weakness in the sub-tropical ridge remaining over the area. This will allow daily chances for thunderstorms along the seabreeze front.
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Bay of Campeche/Yucatan - LawKat, 6/4/2012, 10:32 am
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