bump - w/latest basin discussion
Posted by cypresstx on 6/17/2012, 7:50 am
I'm too lazy to find the links in the above post - not on my regular pc

discussions are getting longer - does anyone know the quickest way to find high seas forecasts they always reference in the discussions - just in general, not a specific forecast ?

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 7N TO 16N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.
A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING APPEARS IN THE LOWER LEVEL
WINDS CHART FOR THE UW-CIMSS/NESDIS IMAGERY. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO IS HINTED AT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO.

THE 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM
17/0000 UTC WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...
AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
16N16W TO 10N20W 5N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N30W TO 3N37W.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
THAT WAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N14W HAS WEAKENED. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W
AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR
30N91W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W
TO 24N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W TO 26N92W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
25N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 92W.

THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF CARLOTTA HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL
HONDURAS...AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO. THE ONLY REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND
97W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO.

FLORIDA IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 21N77W NEAR CUBA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...IN LARGELY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS AT
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT
WINDS THAT ACCOMPANY 28N91W 26N92W TROUGH...AND FROM 23N TO 25N
TO THE EAST OF 84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N68W-T0-21N77W TROUGH ALSO
HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 68W...AND FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W INCLUDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

THE 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM
17/0000 UTC WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF
75W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 26N71W TO 21N77W
NEAR CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF 23N. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 23N53W
12N57W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N68W TO 23N73W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 55W AND 71W

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 30N9W TO 25N15W
23N30W 20N36W 14N44W 10N50W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N39W 10N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N22W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N30W...TO 31N37W 27N47W 22N61W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
32N60W AND 23N73W TROUGH...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 35W AND
55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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Bay of Campeche/Yucatan - LawKat, 6/4/2012, 10:32 am
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