Re: HPC Friday afternoon discussion on 96L
Posted by Shalista on 6/22/2012, 9:56 pm
interesting..lastest run on GFS has this thing crossing Fl develop into a weak TS and hitting the canadian maritimes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012062218&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Euro still has this thing going into S. Tx maybe even Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2012062212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

I'm not even going to put the CMC model because that in itself is IMO really sketchy as it has this thing as a possible Cat 2 hitting Tx and to me I find that improbable in such a short time.  Which is a way different forcast than a few days ago.  Could it be onto something, don't think so I trust the Euro more than anything.

HRWF and GFDL are hinting at what the CMC is going for tho...Looking at the shear factor, it's beginning to decrease.  But looking at WV it looks like this thing blew up over the Yucatan and heading into the gulf.
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HPC Friday afternoon discussion on 96L - DTB_2009, 6/22/2012, 3:57 pm
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