200 PM EDT 96L
Posted by hanna on 6/23/2012, 2:15 pm
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.  HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

As Tiny said "Convection is still way off to the east of COC"

184
In this thread:
200 PM EDT 96L - hanna, 6/23/2012, 2:15 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.