Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm
Posted by BobbiStorm on 6/24/2012, 9:32 am
good discussion ...they have their priorities

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday]...
Tropical Storm Debby has a large convective burst this morning
that envelopes much of the eastern and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Pressures have been falling rapidly over the past few
hours at C Tower and Buoy 42036, and the buoy had one hour of
tropical storm force winds. Both observations have been showing
peak winds to around 40 knots recently, so it appears that the
stronger portion of Debby`s wind field is beginning to enter our
coastal waters. As such, we have decided to upgrade the offshore
legs of our coastal waters to a Tropical Storm Warning. We will
have to monitor the northward progress of the strongest winds, as
any additional expansion could require including some nearshore
legs. For more details on Debby, refer to National Hurricane
Center products at hurricanes.gov.

Given ongoing track uncertainties with Debby, and the fact that
the strongest wind field and rain bands are located to the north
and east of the center-of-circulation, people across the area
should continue to monitor the latest weather information in the
event of any sudden changes in Debby. In this particular case,
with an asymmetric storm, it is important not to focus on the
track cone, as gusty winds and heavy rain bands may extend out a
few hundred miles to the north and east of the center of Debby.

The changes for our forecast for land areas were mainly related to
bumping up winds at the coast slightly today, and increasing PoPs
to over 70% across much of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We
fine-tuned the QPF and this gives storm totals through Tuesday from
about 3-4" along the I-10 corridor, to about 8" along a line from
Panama City to St. Marks, to as much as 10-12" in Gulf and
Franklin Counties. The heaviest rain totals are expected to be
focused within 10-20 miles of the coast due to a protracted period
of enhanced coastal convergence. Given the very high PWATS in the
tropical air mass enveloping Debby, very heavy rainfall rates will
be possible and therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued
through Monday. We decided against including Walton County as
model guidance starts limiting QPF with NW extent inthese areas,
in addition to very high FFG totals in that area. The models are
also showing less mean QPF in the Suwannee River Valley, so the
watch was not extended any further east than Jefferson County.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through next Sunday]...
Regardless of what happens with Debby in the short term, it looks
like it will be out of the area by mid week with below climo PoPs
and above normal temperatures. The 00z GFS forecasts a strong
upper level ridge to build across the area. In fact, with 850 mb
temperatures forecast around +20C, it wouldn`t be surprising to
see temperatures flirt with the 100F mark by the end of the week
across some inland areas.
152
In this thread:
Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - alligatorob, 6/24/2012, 7:58 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.