Re: Is some convection trying to wrap around?
Posted by Shalista on 6/24/2012, 11:46 am
From what I can gather there is a frontal boundry that is movoing over the SE US now, but it'd not strong enough to take Debbie into Fl...The Euro model shifted from last night being a Tx hit to now a La hit.  GFS still has this thing going across Fl.  HWRF mode and Euro are in concensis, and well my personal thoughts are is how much of a fast mover is this font gonna be?  



Based upon this graphical layout, the dashed orange lines is the current frontal boundry.  If the front moves fast, then the GFS will be point on, and the GFS sofar this year has been the precursor of pinpointing where these storms are going.

here is day three of the forcast:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php?day=3

I think Fl is on Debbie's sight IMO based on current model runs, and the GFS has it nailed to the wall. and the CMC has joined int he fray as well with the forcast going into Fl.

Here is something really interesting to add to the pot, check this out 60 hrs out GFS run...

 

Does debbie split and another TC forms off of SC?

here is another view as well...

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Is some convection trying to wrap around? - Tiny, 6/24/2012, 10:56 am
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