Re: African Wave... has a heartbeat and is interesting to look at...
Posted by
ricksterpr on 7/25/2012, 3:59 pm
From NWS San Juan's latest local discussion:
FEATURE OF MOST INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W/23W AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW PRES. 12Z GFS AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM
NHC/HPC HAVE AEW MOVING FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND STAYING MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE 12Z GFS AND GFES NOW SHOW A SLIGHTLY
BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK H25 ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH THE WAVE WITH 7 OUT OF 12 GFES MEMBERS INDICATING A
CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 1010-1012 MB. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD WITH TIMING OF WAVE PASSAGE SEEN ON THE SPAGHETTI PLOT BUT
HAVE SPED UP THE ASSOCIATED WX WITH THIS WAVE TO MON NIGHT THRU
TUE NIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS/GFES AND NHC/HPC MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIG DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE UNFVRBL PHASE OF THE MJO AND H25 POSITIVE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES.
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