91 L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/3/2012, 5:50 pm
During the day, a substantial increase in convection has occurred with the disturbance. I had mentioned this system having possible development about two days ago. Nice mid level rotation while over Hispaniola with scatterred convection, eventually the high terrain weakened the vorticity, but maintained a moderate 850-700mb vort.
Thought wind shear and limited convection yesterday would had not allow this to gather. However, its 850-700mb vorticity remained modest and this key for vertical assent. Here are a few factors have changed today, 850-500mb vort have strengthened, vertical shear is decreasing and veering, low level circulation forming just east of Andros Island Bahamas, convergence increased and upper divergence increased.
However, pressure are high around the forming low. If convection continues to build over a nearly stationary system over warm waters and in a very moist environment, chances are it will increase. |
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91 L Analysis - Jake, 8/3/2012, 5:50 pm
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