Re: Ernesto and the Ridge
Posted by Jake on 8/3/2012, 11:53 pm
Lawkat,

The NHC is becoming more dismissiveof  the GFS / EURO because these mdoels show a weaker system and this is not their thinking. The storm is gradually becoming better defined on sat images as per cloud structure. In addition, a more robust core with deep convection and spiral banding are all signs of a healthier system. Decreasing shear and high oceanic heat content in the western carib will allow this to strengthen.

Finally, a slowing of the forward speed this evening will further aid the cyclone and additional slowing should result as the disturbance in the southern bahamas is weaking the flow gradient of the sub tropical ridge. Any further strengthening of 91L could turn Ernesto more poleward earlier than expected. The GOMEX should watch!!!!!
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Ernesto and the Ridge - LawKat, 8/3/2012, 11:17 pm
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