Re: Isaac very confusing
Posted by CX on 8/23/2012, 4:14 pm
I remember when Ernesto was bursting deep convection the 2nd time around and everyone thought he was getting ready to bomb out, I read a post on Master's blog; someone was quoting Joe Bastardi. The quote dealt w/ how Ernesto was not intensifying and the deep convection bloom was temporarily caused by what he termed "dry air bursting" and it wouldn't be until W of Jamaica when Ernesto would get his game face on.

That's what happened, and that appears to be the same thing that Isaac is dealing with now. The NHC has been constantly blaming dry air entrainment at the mid levels for Isaac's lack of organization and I think that's what's causing the convective bursts and subsequent collapses.

Also, as I had eluded to last night around the time of the 06Z fix, Isaac's 500mb vorticity isn't stacked over the surface circ. Now, granted it's better than last night. The CIMSS has the 850 and 700mb vorticities perfectly aligned w/ the surface circ and stronger, BUT the 500mb is still elongated and displaced to the SSW.

Isaac is a mess and it will lead to a 55-60mph TS (MAX intensity) prior to interaction w/ the Greater Antilles. It won't be until Isaac is either 1) in the FLA Straits, or 2) S of Cuba (if it takes the W route) that we see anything that resembles actual, stready, sustained intensification.
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Isaac very confusing - LawKat, 8/23/2012, 3:55 pm
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