Isaac Late Evening look and Florida
Posted by
Jake on 8/24/2012, 12:09 am
Isaac appears to be finally consolidating a central core with strong convection. Overall the cloud pattern has improved near the center with some feeder bands and 1001mb pressure / lowest so far.. The storm has a large wind field and increasing mesoscale convection complex which will likely circle under the developing core and possibly rap fully around the center. However, it appears that slow strengthening tonight is in line and reach 70mph befor reaching the southern coast of Haiti late morning.
Intensity today had been held in check, mainly because of weak inner core structure, dry air entrainment and a restricted outflow from easterly shear. A gradual improvement of the environmental pattern will lead to strengthening, especially if the center emerges sooner over the waters of the SW bahamas.
The steering pattern has become more interesting to me and here's why. Currently a sharp mid-latitude trough is moving east across the central gulf mid layer wind vectors 700mb are SW across central florida and pushing east. In addition, sat imagery shows a large stream of stratocumulus deck moving NW-NNW north of hispaniola and the bahamas whch indicates the begin of the break in the sub-trop ridge. Furthermore Isaac has been turning slowly more poleward this evening with a WNW heading @ 290. Lastly, there appears to be a 48- 60hr window of a NW heading @ 305 and this will take the core north of cuba and over open waters where OHC is high and strengthening could resume sooner and ultimately bring a stronger system across extreme South Fl.
Note: The GFS 00Z run brings the core closer across SW Fl and the WRF/NAM mid range 00Z run brings the core north of cuba to near Andros Island before turning it on a more westward track. Let's see how the collected data from the aircraft mission tonight affects the models... |
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Isaac Late Evening look and Florida - Jake, 8/24/2012, 12:09 am Post A Reply
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