Re: Chris, GFS track on the front page of HurricaneCity.
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2012, 11:15 pm
I'm not really sure what each ensemble member represents. I'm not sure if it changes or always the same. Just for interest, here is a description for the GFDL ensembles: http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/nomads/forms/hurricane/AboutGFE.html
Not that it has anything to do with GFS, but just an example of the 2012 version for that.
The GFS is a "Multi-layer global dynamical" model.
From:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
"g. Ensembles and Consensus Forecasts"
Snippet:
"Single-model ensembles are multiple predictions from the same starting time for a given model, using different initial conditions. This type of ensemble accounts for the uncertainties in the initial state of the atmosphere. Even among single-model ensembles, a simple average of its members (i.e., the ensemble mean) often produces a more skillful forecast than any individual ensemble member, since errors associated with the individual forecasts tend to be canceled out. However, the ensemble mean often smoothes out the finer-scale details associated with the individual ensemble member forecasts. In most cases, the ensemble runs are made at relatively coarse resolution compared to the parent model. Ensembles from a single model have not proven to be as useful for TC forecasting as ensembles constructed from different independent models." |
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