Re: It is it me... or is it missing its forecast points badly?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/31/2012, 12:28 am
It's nice to see the forecast motion actually start. Of course it is not supposed to have started yet, a couple days away perhaps, but until it really happens there is always that possibility. Of course not only the NE islands, but also Bermuda (which is around cone anyway already) and Canada can come into play as well.
It's nice to watch storm's like Kirk, which at the moment looks like an upside down baby squirrel. I feed squirrels in my yard everyday, so maybe that's just me.
Part of 8/30 11PM NHC Discussion:
"THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF
OF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO BREAK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVELS...
AND EXTEND FAR ENOUGH VERTICALLY DOWNWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AT
700-850 MB. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AFTER THE 48 HR
POINT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 96 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AT 120 HR REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LESLIE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES...AND BASED ON THIS SPREAD...THE TRACK
FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION NEAR THAT
TIME."
From:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/310241.shtml
Better view of water vapor over NE:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html |
165
In this thread:
TD 12 becomes TS Leslie -
Alabamaboy,
8/30/2012, 4:33 pm Post A Reply
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