Might Leslie make things interesting?
Posted by
Gianmarc on 8/31/2012, 9:56 am
Days 4 and 5 in the NHC's current forecast for Leslie seem squirrely to me--not exactly high confidence in Leslie's continued move out to sea. Wondering what you all think about this possibility implied in this morning's update of some sort of "southwestern" turn toward the end of the current forecast period?
LESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 285/14 KT...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO NEARLY VANISH BY DAY 3 AS LESLIE BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE IN THE STEERING FLOW...LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY DAYS 4
AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
BUT THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT ON DAYS 4 AND
5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THEREFORE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT IT IS STILL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA ON DAY 5. |
472
In this thread:
Might Leslie make things interesting? - Gianmarc, 8/31/2012, 9:56 am Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.