Re: Which one was correct?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2012, 5:12 am
For the entire life of the storm, including as an invest, the error at 5 days as my system calculated it:

1. TVCA/TVCE/TVCN181.4nm
2. HWRF186.2nm
3. TVCC192.7nm
4. HWFI203.2nm
5. OFCL205.2nm

This was generated for the storm in real time. The best track file could be adjusted and when I reprocess the storm data later this month, it could change slightly.

The NHC did good with the track of this storm given the performance of the models and was just better than their 5 year average. Over the past 5 years (not including anything from this year), the NHC has averaged 213.4nm error at 5 days in the Atlantic. (PDF from the Official five-year mean errors and distributions page)

From:

Table:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2012&storm=09&display=modelerror

Chart:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2012&storm=09&display=modelerror&type=chart&latestrun=1



Some brief model info:



TVCA
Variable Consensus Track Guidance (Average of at least two of: AVNI/2, EGRI/2, GHMI/2, HWFI/2, GFNI/2, EMXI/2)
Require at least 2

TVCN/TVCE - Currently have same composition
Variable Consensus Track Guidance (Average of at least two of: AVNI/2, EGRI/2, NGPI/2, GHMI/2, HWFI/2, GFNI/2, EMXI/2)
Require at least 2

Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours

Notes from 2011 NHC Verification report: "It is intended that TCOA/TVCA would be the primary consensus aids for the Atlantic basin and TCOE/TVCE would be primary for the eastern Pacific."
Since this is the Atlantic, my guess is that TVCN/TVCE probably didn't have NGPI/2 so you had all three being exactly the same with whatever models the NHC used to make the consensus.




HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model




TVCC
Variable Corrected TVCN Consensus Guidance
Version of TVCN corrected for model biases




HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)




OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
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Which one was correct? - pcola52, 9/1/2012, 1:30 am
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