10/27 am disco
Posted by Fred on 10/27/2012, 8:22 am
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. GENERAL OPERATION
MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE STORM IN
AROUND 00Z TUES...THOUGH WITH DISCREPANCIES OF ACTUAL LOCATION
BEING FROM DELMARVA UP TO LI. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
TREND BRINGING THE STORM IN AROUND THE DELMARVA REGION...SO KEPT
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THIS THINKING.
THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST
TROPICAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT
ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH
INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR
WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION
OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL
FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.
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NYC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS - Fred, 10/26/2012, 9:04 am
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