low is moving into position
Posted by cypresstx on 11/6/2012, 7:03 am
animation with enhancement options  





forecast for storm surge http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/

here's King's Point





days 1-3 surface low track from NOAAWatch Daily Briefing & HPC's Winter Weather Forecast suite of products



more



their Tues AM winter discussion

MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING EXIST.

IN TERMS OF THE MODELS...THE TRENDS TONIGHT WERE A CONTINUATION OF
THE FURTHER EAST TREND ESTABLISHED BACK ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS PRODUCE LESS QPF ON LAND.  THE SOLUTIONS WITH A
MORE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY ALSO PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION PROVIDES GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ON DAY 2 IN NJ.  THIS WAS COUNTERED BY LESS POTENTIAL
FROM THE GFS DUE TO THE GFS FASTER MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH HOVER AROUND FREEZING WED NIGHT...WITH
MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE IN NJ/NY/NEW ENGLAND.  THE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS LEADS TO A LOW RISK ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND DAY 3...WHEN THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE IN FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN THE SLOW ECMWF
AND FAST UKMET/CANADIAN...MANUAL PROGS CONTINUED A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL (LOW RISK).
GIVEN THE CHANGING GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
NORMAL.


and their regular short range discussion

347 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 06 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012

...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR...

A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
AS A BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORS THE OPEN ATLANTIC...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE WITH LITTLE SHIFT TO THE
EAST. THE COASTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WILL DEFINITELY BE A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCER WHILE CHURNING UP THE SEAS.
HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY BE NUDGED OFFSHORE A BIT FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL WEDGE ITSELF ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM DELAWARE UP TO MAINE. THIS
CURRENTLY INCLUDES SOME MAJOR METROPOLITAN CITIES INCLUDING
PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK CITY...AND BOSTON WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
CHANGING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY ALTER THE IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON MODEL GUIDANCE...PLEASE
VISIT THE HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION ON THE HPC WEBSITE
UNDER THE DISCUSSIONS HEADER.


NWS wind speed & direction forecast  click on the map to zoom to an area



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low is moving into position - cypresstx, 11/6/2012, 7:03 am
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