2013 Forecast: 17 S, 11 H, 4 MH
Posted by
Target on 12/23/2012, 7:40 am
It's so difficult to predict a Season's number of storms this far out, but for what it's worth, I'm bullish on storms for 2013.
The ENSO forecast looks neutral for September, the current SST anomalies show warmth in the Atlantic Tropics (nice shape), the Caribbean deep sea waters are only getting hotter due to climate change and they cover a wider area this year, and the AMO cycle should be near its peak over the next few years.
So I would not be surprised to see 17 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes, and 4 Major Hurricanes in 2013.
I'll probably make another forecast just before the Season starts in June, but I would watch out for an early storm in 2013 because all the deep warm water may allow some hot spots to form early near the Caribbean, and very hot spots of SST's seem to spark storms, IMHO.
I might consider the SAL in my next forecast, but I don't know what to make of it now. |
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2013 Forecast: 17 S, 11 H, 4 MH - Target, 12/23/2012, 7:40 am Post A Reply
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