Great write up
Posted by
Fred on 3/6/2013, 10:15 am
Quote from local met Craig Allen
Update to the update (and plenty more updates to follow)
Models 'basically' holding course. 0z and 6z gfs now the outlier making this a minimal precip impact event but all other aspects are similar. The gfs, seemingly more so this winter deservesits own show on Cartoon Network. Anyway, this is going to become typical of some March storms that slow down or even stall....and that is NOT good. Prepare yourselves for a long duration storm taking on several different facets from time to time and place to place.
Facts: 1) Various warnings and advisories already issued for wind, coastal flooding and snow. Some will be upgraded and expanded, others will be dropped as the storm envelops the region. 2)30-50 mph winds. Psbl gusts to 60 along the coast. 3) Tidal flooding at high tide. My thoughts and concerns go out to coastal residents. It's prbly a 3-4 foot surge but at least 2 tide cycles will be affected and the water will pile up, unable to drain at low tide. Worst flooding will depend on wind direction which has veered to easterly now , then back to northeast to north tonight. 4) Significant beach erosion likely with 8-16' breakers. 5) Plenty of available precip, perhaps in 2 or 3 separate sequences.
Unknowns 1) Can you believe there still isn't a good consensus on this one item...the precip; amount of rain vs snow. I'm still having a hard time justifying all the calls for heavier snow amounts, especially east across LI from the first part of the storm. Upper air set up is still great and cold but low level temps are well above freezing today (as they have been last few days) Completely cyclonic flow of the 40-45° ocean would mean mixing, melting or even plain rain for a while; at least through this afternoon.
How fast does the wind back to a northeast or even northerly direction? That will determine when the change to a heavy, wet snow will occur. And what about the usual banding features that set up in these situations? Picking the location of the heavier bands can never be done until they actually develop. They may only be 10-30 miles wide but could be 30-70 miles long! Think Feb 8- the blizzard had snowfall amounts ranging from well under 1 foot to almost 3 feet on LI and CT. All you can do is watch radar for the signs, as the event is underway.
If you think this part is going to be tough...there's more! As mentioned, the Low will stall or wobble for another 24 to even 48 hours! Intermittent wet snow and rain will fall through Thursday. Probably no significant new snow accumulations during the daylight hours; in fact, there may even be melting. BUT all models are indicating yet another burst of snow which may very well stick under the cover of darkness Thursday night into Friday morning.
This is why you're seeing and hearing so many snowfall forecasts from 2 to 10 and some maps paint a picture of 0 to 20+.
Right now, I'd say a general 2-5" plastering of wet snow with bands of 6-12", especially north & east and especially in the higher terrain. For L.I. there could once again be a difference of several inches from the south shore to the hills of the north shore. Same from the CT coast to north of the Merritt.
The potentially damaging and serious stuff, which I believe to be the coastal problems is a given and you should be on high alert. The snowfall is still the toughest part of this forecast so at the very least, be prepared and LEAVE EARLY to get home today. I don't want to hear about hundreds of stranded people again; it gets me so upset to think of people in that situation.
More on 880 through the day with the CBS2 weather team/ Accuweather and I'll be back at 4pm.
Hang in there- the weekend looks GREAT |
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Fred,
3/5/2013, 1:47 pm Post A Reply
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