Re: Coming soon: Cool new stuff coming from the National Hurricane Center
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 3/27/2013, 8:27 pm
I think the issuance of hurricane warnings would be extremely rare. Humberto is the prime example:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_(2007)
But I can think of a few instances, though I can't recall the circumstances of whether it was a watch or warning, and I think it was for tropical storm conditions, where the possibility was discussed, possibly in tropical outlooks.
I don't think there would be too many instances where you would need to issue a hurricane warning for something that has not developed yet. Of course tropical storm watches are one thing and hurricane warnings are another. Needing to issue a hurricane warning for something that has not yet developed but expected to impact an area as a hurricane in 36 hours, or 48 hours for a watch, would be very unusual, but I think very necessary so people were not surprised. You do run a risk of forecasting wrong, but I think it is worth it in that case. (Every watch and warning carries that risk, though for undeveloped systems more so.) However, I could see where a tropical storm watch could be issued rather frequently then for something that could impact an area in 48 hours. I would hope that they wouldn't go overboard on that type of watch for undeveloped systems. I could see where that could set off false alarms a lot for some of the islands in the Carib especially. When will it or won't it develop is a fun game to play for invests, or less, moving through the Carib, but issuing watches only to see the development delayed by days and leaving the watch area by that time could be a big problem. (Eastern Carib, I'm looking at you.) That would mean coordinating a lot of watches and warnings with a lot of different countries down there and putting them in a position to be wrong a lot.
I would prefer they use hurricane watches and warnings for undeveloped systems that are expected to impact an area as a hurricane rather than tropical storm watches and warnings issued much more often for undeveloped systems. Keep it to the more dangerous systems that could sneak up. With that said however, I think they should be able to issue tropical storm watches and warnings as well for undeveloped systems. Even from these systems, rainfall could be the biggest threat and could be very deadly for some storms, despite it not having much wind, even more so than if there was less rainfall and more wind. (Hispaniola) I would just prefer they keep the issuance of whatever watches and warnings to the undeveloped systems that seem to pose the most threat. At least for now. Forecasting gets better and better, but if there is a lot of uncertainty and we are talking about a 35 mph wave/depression or a 40 mph tropical storm as being the expected impact to an area with little flooding rain, I think it is okay to not issue a tropical storm watch or warning. |
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