| For now at 5am, they are continuing advisories. The forecast track has shifted west but remains on the eastern side of the models. The word "uncertainty" does not appear in the discussion. I thought there would be all sorts of usage. She does now have a little convection again at the moment. Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/083729.shtml?5day?large TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY 42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 ...CHANTAL WEAKENING... ...MAY BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 69.5W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY...NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE |