NHC Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/10/2013, 11:10 am
Too much uncertainty I think to know what might happen to it. I think the track and intensity forecast are pretty much useless for this storm at the moment. It may not dissipate in a few days, or it may sooner, or it may later. At least it is weak enough right now that it doesn't matter significantly.
Cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145859.shtml?5day?large#contents
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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