Experimental average track consensus among selected models on a Google Map
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/25/2013, 10:53 am
I have added an experimental feature to HurricaneCity's model system. You can view it here for Dorian:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=04&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

Among models you select, you can now create an average track consensus. (Select "Show average track consensus options" once on that page.) There are a lot of various options, some of which will prevent the consensus line from showing up until you add enough models. Or, you have to change the options. This is in order to have more data to get a smoother consensus.

A non updating image of all models appears below. I added all models, but technically you have to consider what you are adding. With all the GFS ensemble members, the late period consensus track is heavy on the GFS, Also, some models have the exact same track. They may have different intensities. If you add three models that are exactly the same and one other one, the consensus would lean toward the three that are exactly the same.

I have also made various other updates to the Google Map display.

I will probably make additional changes to the consensus feature. (I might possibly add intensity averages in the popup window for the consensus, but that might be very complex and misleading. I need to think about it more.) However, I decided to go ahead and release the track consensus in case anyone has feedback.

This new feature is currently only HurricaneCity's model page, not Tropical Atlantic's. I have to wait until I finish updating something else in the model system and then I can add it to my site and recreate all the historic data on my site to reflect the new update. It takes about a full day to recreate and upload data, which is why I am waiting rather than doing it twice. It may be the end of August before my site has it.

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Experimental average track consensus among selected models on a Google Map - Chris in Tampa, 7/25/2013, 10:53 am
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