Re: P.S. re cyclone formation probability
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2013, 7:00 pm
It started at 8am this morning.
About:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130725_pa_xtwo.pdf
http://products.weather.gov/PDD/Experimental%20TWO_Enhancement%20071813_text%20%281%29.pdf
A summary from today:
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEGINNING TODAY WITH THE 8 AM EDT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN INCLUDING INFORMATION ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE FOLLOWING
FIVE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED PROBABILISTICALLY IN
10-PERCENT INCREMENTS...AND WILL SUPPLEMENT THE 48-HOUR
PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POTENTIAL ALREADY PROVIDED. THE CURRENT
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT SHOWS THE 48-HOUR GENESIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. NHC IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A
FIVE-DAY GENESIS POTENTIAL GRAPHIC THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER
IN THE SEASON.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
NNNN
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...USE LOWER
CASE...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
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