Re: 97L afternoon Look
Posted by Jake on 9/1/2013, 5:07 pm
The disturbance has maintained convection throughout the day and this is most evident just east of the well defined, but broad/elongated center. Surface obs across the lessor Antilles show some falling pressures with easterly winds over the northern islands and westerly winds over the southern.

Upper ridging is building over the system and should continue westward in tandem with the system. Modest increase in organization should continue in the short term, with a more steady increase thereafter, as our next named storm forms in the eastern carib.

The center will likely form a bit further east over the stronger Meso-scale convection, especially as shear further lessons and OHC increases. The vortex is not well stacked, as the 850-700 are, but the 500mbs is a bit weak. However, as mid-upper level shear lesson these should increase and stack. Finally, some mid-upper dry air could slow this some in the short term as 500-300mb moisture is 40-60%. But, a large moisture surge in the form of a tropical wave just E-SE of 97L will inject heat and a substantial increase in mid-upper level moisture.
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A look at 97L - Jake, 8/31/2013, 3:24 pm
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