Re: Tropical wave over Africa up to 70% for chances of development in five days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/7/2013, 7:20 am
Forgot to add the latest four runs of the GFS as of 6Z on September 7th:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2013090706.tc_atl_ll.4cyc.png
From: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

So, 70% chance of development into a tropical cyclone, depression or higher, but if it can keep anything close to that kind of track, not a problem. We'll have to see though what would happen if it didn't develop as quickly, like move a little further west, but it did come off a bit high so hopefully, other than Cape Verde, this will stay over the open Atlantic.
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Tropical wave over Africa up to 50% for chances of development in five days - Chris in Tampa, 9/6/2013, 8:00 am
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