| "TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TONIGHT. 2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BERG" http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Satellite: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/index.htm |