Re: a nail biter
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/10/2013, 7:34 pm
I just wonder if both intensity estimates were 4.0 if they would go ahead and raise it despite the appearance.

He has a tiny amount of convection in the NE quadrant, but otherwise he is drying out:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL092013
(Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator))

If you look at "Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)" though, the difference is incredible to look at how it used to look compared to now. But, it does have that convection to the NE and a center that looks eye-ish (but more dry slotty, I'm starting to make up words), despite not having cold cloud tops around it.

A lot of factors seem to say no upgrade. If we get to 8pm and no upgrade, hopefully dry air will really persist rather than being helped by the diurnal maximum later.

ADT:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html

SatCon:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/09L.html
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/

AMSU:
http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2013/201309L.html
From: http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/


Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

 CI        MWS         MWS         MSLP           MSLP          Saffir-Simpson  
Number    (Knots)      (MPH)     (Atlantic)    (NW Pacific)         Category    
1         25 KTS      29 MPH                                     (Approximate)
1.5       25 KTS      29 MPH      
2         30 KTS      35 MPH      1009 mb        1000 mb
2.5       35 KTS      40 MPH      1005 mb         997 mb
3         45 KTS      52 MPH      1000 mb         991 mb
3.5       55 KTS      63 MPH       994 mb         984 mb
4         65 KTS      75 MPH       987 mb         976 mb        1  (64-83 KTS)
4.5       77 KTS      89 MPH       979 mb         966 mb        1  (64-83 KTS); 2  (84-96 KTS)
5         90 KTS     104 MPH       970 mb         954 mb        2  (84-96 KTS); 3  (97-113 KTS)
5.5      102 KTS     117 MPH       960 mb         941 mb        3  (97-113 KTS)
6        115 KTS     132 MPH       948 mb         927 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
6.5      127 KTS     146 MPH       935 mb         914 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
7        140 KTS     161 MPH       921 mb         898 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
7.5      155 KTS     178 MPH       906 mb         879 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
8        170 KTS     196 MPH       890 mb         858 mb        5  (136+  KTS)

CI   -- Current Intensity
MWS  -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars


From: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
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no hurricane yet ! - cypresstx, 9/10/2013, 11:19 am
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