Missed it by that much
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/11/2013, 6:27 am
It was hard to ignore the organization. They even explain as such in the discussion. But three hours! The interesting thing will be if they update the best track data, which I guess they probably will. As of now, best track data at 2am is a tropical storm and at 8am it will be a hurricane. So, temporarily it could look as though we did tie the record, although given that they say they could have gone with 75mph at 2am, I guess eventually it will probably be updated. Plus, technically Gustav was not a hurricane at 5am. But let's look back at how close it was!!! Because it was VERY close. Even closer than it appears.



HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.  HUMBERTO
HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.  IN A FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL
CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT
MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS
LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER
STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.  WITH HUMBERTO
BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE
TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 16.0N  28.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 17.2N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  12/0600Z 19.0N  29.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  12/1800Z 20.9N  29.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  13/0600Z 22.5N  30.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  14/0600Z 23.8N  33.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  15/0600Z 24.2N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 25.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Grrrrrr over Dvorak. SAB came in with 3.5 again at 5:45Z which is why it was kept at a tropical storm at 2am. Keep in mind TAFB was at 4.0, a hurricane, earlier. Humberto's pressure is estimated at 992mb.

Let's take a look at Gustav in 2002 shall we...

First, the 5am...



ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  GUSTAV IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT A 60 KNOT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
TWO ESTIMATES.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE.  BUOY 44004 IS DIRECTLY
IN THE STORMS PATH AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KNOW IF GUSTAV HAS
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH FROM THIS BUOYS WIND OBSERVATIONS.
GUSTAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER.  ON THE OUTBOUND
LEG...IT REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS IN THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CDO AREA.  THE DROPSONDE DATA IS NOT YET AVAILABLE FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 MB MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT...GUSTAV MIGHT BE A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/0900Z 37.4N  72.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 44.5N  61.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     12/1800Z 49.3N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/0600Z 52.5N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/0600Z 57.5N  52.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL



SATELLITE ESTIMATES!!!!!!! They had recon available, so they cheated!!! Well, they kind of had recon available, but they didn't. They were waiting!

And those exact estimates. Where does that sound familiar? Back to the present, and back to 5pm yesterday for Humberto:

"DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT... RESPECTIVELY."

And then at 11pm:

"DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS...AVERAGING AT 60 KT...WHILE ADT AND CIMSS AMSU SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE."

Now back to 2002...

And the pressure!?! Uhhhhh.

And teasing us with it "MIGHT BE A HURRICANE"!?!

Now let's fast forward to the discussion 6 hours later... where we get to... "JUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY"...



ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

JUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS AT 850 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS...THE 975 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...GUSTAV IS UPGRADED
TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH THIS DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOME A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/20.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES
GUSTAV SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...THEN SLOW AND
TURN LEFT ONCE IT REACHES THE LABRADOR SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REFLECTS THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/1500Z 38.6N  69.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 42.4N  64.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 47.2N  59.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/0000Z 51.5N  54.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/1200Z 54.7N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/1200Z 60.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL



Oh yes, it was a hurricane. Confirmed by recon. Forget the satellite estimates. The CDO was not quite as defined perhaps at it was at 11am compared to 5am perhaps, and in the end the best track data was not updated for Gustav at 2am that morning. So... even though the basis for upgrading would have worked at 5am it would seem at the time, the best track was a tropical storm at 2am and a hurricane at 8am's best track. Where does that seem familiar?

Back to the present.

Upon thinking about it further, I could see where we might have tied the record. Best track data can be adjusted. Or not. Although, there would also kinda be a footnote next to Humerto if the best track data was not updated and Gustav and Humberto always had the 8am best track position as when it first became a hurricane. Humberto was declared a hurricane at the 5am advisory and Gustav was not. Humberto's winds at the surface may not have been hurricane force yet, but we'll never know otherwise.

So it looks like 2013 ends up being in second place for the latest formation of the first Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era after 2002's Gustav.

Or, maybe it will tie with the aforementioned kinda, sorta footnote, although best track data is what is the official record in the end. But I'll still feel cheated, lol.


I think I'll go type a nicer version of this post for my Facebook page.

And now back to regularly scheduled programming...

How about 93L. 30% chance in 48 hours, 70% in 5 days, as of 2am on Wednesday, but an impressive blob on floater and those chances could be increased at 8am:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/93L_floater.html

The other two this year waited until the other side of the Yucatan, but this one seems to be in more of a hurry.
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Humberto still a 70mph tropical storm as of 8pm EDT best track position update on Tuesday - Chris in Tampa, 9/10/2013, 8:50 pm
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