| It's always fun to watch the naked swirls: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html On Shortwave IR. While shear is getting to it now, though it may be a little less a times perhaps based on the SHIPS intensity output, look at those later numbers. It will be long gone by then, it's just funny to see numbers like that. Pretty much quintuple the shear it is right now as analyzed by that product. Although, the shear looks like more than 18 knots at the moment. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 30 36 46 41 33 26 26 27 25 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 30 36 46 36 31 24 24 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 26 27 30 34 33 30 27 27 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 14 11 20 46 65 87 86 71 50 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 8 5 -12 -13 -6 9 3 SHEAR DIR 273 280 268 270 265 209 204 214 238 252 252 230 256 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 25.8 17.1 14.1 7.7 9.2 8.5 9.5 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 131 133 116 78 74 69 67 65 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 109 110 114 103 74 71 68 65 64 64 66 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.5 -56.6 -57.3 -56.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 51 51 58 56 50 43 51 58 60 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 7 14 11 9 9 14 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -93 -83 -73 -36 50 121 29 -37 -46 9 36 74 200 MB DIV -19 12 21 7 21 85 82 43 6 6 24 51 27 700-850 TADV -3 0 5 11 4 25 40 51 -16 -5 -5 5 -71 LAND (KM) 887 839 791 759 717 446 63 10 234 731 1096 1381 1353 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.3 33.6 34.6 35.5 39.0 44.0 48.9 53.8 57.0 58.2 57.8 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 67.2 67.6 67.7 67.7 66.5 63.3 58.6 52.5 46.5 40.8 35.5 30.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 14 23 29 30 27 19 15 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 28 32 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 3. -6. -17. -26. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 3. 1. -1. -2. 3. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 0. 6. 16. 11. 3. -4. -4. -3. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) |