| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?3-daynl?large#contents TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER. EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STRENGTHEND AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM INGRID...THE NINTH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |