WPC still struggles with it
Posted by cypresstx on 9/23/2013, 5:16 am
...CNTL GULF COAST INTO FL...

LOW CONFIDENCE FCST HERE AS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH
ANY POTNL DVLPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONT ACRS THE NRN GULF.  NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AS IT DVLPG A LOW LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AHEAD OF HIGH LEVEL S/WV PUSHING EWD
ACRS THE NRN GULF.  WHILE THIS SOLN HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODEL RUNS...ALL DO BRING INCREASED AXIS OF 2.25 INCH PWS NEWD
INTO FL LATE MON INTO TUES..WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE
NAM.  THIS DOES SUGGEST GREATER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF
THE CNTL PENINSULA THOUGH ITS HARD TO JUSTIFY GOING AS HEAVY AS
THE NAM AT THIS TIME.   FARTHER W..ALL KEEP WEAK SFC REFLECTION
SOUTH OF THE LA COAST WITH SLOW WEAKENING..WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ALLOWING SOME NWD SPREAD OF HIER PWS AND RAIN CHANCES ACRS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF S/WV TROF PUSHING EWD THRU THE MID MS
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS MON NIGHT.  SOLNS ARE EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN
LIGHT RAINS OR SOMEWHAT MORE MDT RAINS WORKING NWD INTO AR.  GIVEN
SUCH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ACRS THIS AREA..TOOK A CONSERVATIVE
APCH LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD AND ENSEMBLE BLEND UNTIL A CLEARER
CONSENSUS EMERGES.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html






OPC shows the Gulf low dissipating, but a new low forming on the east coast of FL at 96 hrs

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95L visible on Brownsville radar: Hybrid system in the maybe with trough to North - Will_TX, 9/20/2013, 10:51 pm
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