Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2013
Posted by hanna on 10/2/2013, 9:43 am
A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Kingston, Jamaica picked up 2.60" of rain on Monday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased in intensity and organization Tuesday morning. The broad area of spin associated with 97L is growing more defined, and the storm is taking advantage of wind shear that has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as well as an upper-air anticyclone that has set up over the storm, providing good ventilation aloft. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). A hurricane hunter flight scheduled for Tuesday afternoon was cancelled due to 97L's lack of organization, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.

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97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - Chris in Tampa, 10/1/2013, 2:11 am
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