Tampa NWS actually called her Debby
Posted by cypresstx on 10/4/2013, 9:50 am
in their discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

000
FXUS62 KTBW 041336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

.UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO BREW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE
STORM ARE ALREADY CAUSING 2-3 FOOT SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
PWAT NOW UP TO 1.82 INCHES...AND 500MB TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY (NOW DOWN TO -7C). HOWEVER A STEEP
MOISTURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST TO
DRIER AIR INLAND AND OVER THE NATURE COAST...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST COASTAL TERMINALS 20-24Z WITH VCSH
SCT050. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE STREAMS OFF OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS PRODUCING 3 FEET SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH MODERATE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS BEING REPORTED ALONG
THE COAST. EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND AS KAREN MOVES NORTH...WITH WINDS AND SEAS RISING TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  75 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  90  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GIF  91  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
SRQ  88  73  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
BKV  90  66  89  72 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  88  76  88  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-
    HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...FLEMING
AVIATION...NOAH
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will the gfs be right on karen - stevemc12, 10/4/2013, 9:30 am
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