Re: WeatherNation blog - Craig Setzer opinion piece
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/4/2013, 10:19 pm
I agree, it's not that simple. Although, there would be an alternative they could put out there. Have versions that have the cone plus the distance of the radii of the actual storm. That could be for the three day maybe as they don't do the wind radii at four and five days. Maybe have one for tropical storm force winds and one for hurricane force winds for example. It might start looking a little weird though, so I do like the simpler cone as the main product. I have thought at times it would be nice in some cases for storms that are extra uncertain, to be able to somehow reflect more uncertainty than usual in the cone. And the opposite, when there is much less uncertainty. However, short of drawing it by hand, I'm not sure what they could base it on. Model spread somehow? Then which models? Of course many meteorologists don't even know what the cone is. How many times have you heard one say the cone is smaller because the track is more certain? That the NHC is more confident? I have lots of times. It simply means that approximately two thirds of the time over the last 5 years a storm's center would stay inside the cone. About one third of the time it doesn't. Some meteorologists make a big deal when you are out of the cone by a little by indicating you're safe. If you are just a tad outside the cone, don't forget what happens the other third of the time!

Of course that is all wind like you say anyway. A single image will not tell you everything. The public still needs to have it explained to them or be able to look at multiple products to learn about the impacts particular to them. You can't throw everything on a single image. You need something explainable as the main thing to show constantly. (if some meteorologists don't know what the cone is now, just think what would happen if they really made it complicated)

I do look forward to the future surge products too. When that comes out in a few years perhaps I hope that helps a lot. However, that is something that a single large image will not help with too much either. People will have to see closeup imagery specific to them, either through local media or online through the NHC's site, to see the surge risks. I suppose there might be text products too. I envision from what I have seen so far that it is something that would do well on a Google Map, but very much more detailed than what they currently have. Maybe clickable to get even more detail on specific areas.
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WeatherNation blog - Craig Setzer opinion piece - cypresstx, 10/4/2013, 1:54 pm
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