Invest 98L SW of Cape Verde
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2013, 11:04 pm
'Cause it's that time of year. <-- sarcasm


Sunday at 8pm:

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. "

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html

Wider View:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/catl.html

Models:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=98&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

First SHIPS intensity output:

                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *      INVEST  AL982013  10/07/13  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    26    31    36    45    52    55    56    52    51    51    52
V (KT) LAND       20    22    26    31    36    45    52    55    56    52    51    51    52
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    23    25    27    33    38    41    40    37    33    29    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     5     6     7     9    11    12    22    28    37    32    31    27
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3    -3    -4    -3     3     9    12    13    11     9     5     3
SHEAR DIR         73   130   146   158   173   212   223   255   250   258   261   269   271
SST (C)         28.4  28.3  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.3  28.4  28.4  28.3  28.2  28.3  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   144   142   138   138   138   139   140   143   143   141   140   142   144
ADJ. POT. INT.   150   144   139   139   137   137   137   140   141   139   137   137   138
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     9     9     9    10    10    10    10    10    10    10
700-500 MB RH     69    67    66    65    63    58    56    54    58    58    64    62    64
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     8     8     9     9     9    10    10     9     9     9     9
850 MB ENV VOR    65    60    63    69    78    69    65    54    33    15     7    -2   -17
200 MB DIV        43    61    77    98   107    58    42    30    21     3    23    30    13
700-850 TADV      -2    -1    -1     0     0     0     2     3     4     2     0    -7    -8
LAND (KM)       1173  1286  1398  1484  1574  1745  1784  1793  1726  1594  1527  1472  1463
LAT (DEG N)      9.5   9.9  10.2  10.6  11.0  11.6  12.3  12.9  13.6  14.3  15.3  16.3  17.3
LONG(DEG W)     27.2  28.4  29.5  30.5  31.5  33.3  34.8  36.7  38.8  41.1  43.3  45.5  47.6
STM SPEED (KT)    14    12    11    11    10     9     9    10    11    11    12    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      11     9     9    12    17    18    17    19    26    14    17    14    17

 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  3
 T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  538  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  59.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  33.  35.  37.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   8.   7.   4.  -2.  -6.  -9. -11.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -14.
 PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   9.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           2.   6.  11.  16.  25.  32.  35.  36.  32.  31.  31.  32.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013     INVEST 10/07/13  00 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.9 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 122.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  11.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  77.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013     INVEST 10/07/2013  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
340
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Invest 98L SW of Cape Verde - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2013, 11:04 pm
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