Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Posted by hanna on 10/11/2013, 10:49 am
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2013

Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin is closing in on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours. After reaching peak intensity near 8 pm EDT Thursday, Phailin--whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai--began an eyewall replacement cycle. The eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger-diameter eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, and satellite estimates of Phailin's central pressure increased from 910 mb to 934 mb during the eyewall replacement cycle, from 04 - 11 UTC Friday. However, satellite images show that Phailin has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and is now re-intensifying, with the cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall expanding and cooling, as updrafts in the eyewall grow stronger and push the clouds higher into the atmosphere. The latest satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure had dropped to 920 mb as on 13 UTC (9 am EDT) on Friday. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 10:55 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots.


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Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog - hanna, 10/11/2013, 10:49 am
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