Hurricane Sandy models from 10/24/12
Posted by Fred on 10/24/2013, 9:26 am
























































PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
949 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/24 GEFS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WITH ALL THE ACTION ALONG THE EAST
COAST, THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE AWASH IN PACIFIC
AIR, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SERVING THOSE REGIONS WELL, CONSIDERING
THE INHERENT TIMING ISSUES IN THE MORE OPEN FLOW THERE. THE USE OF
THE MEAN FOR THE EAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACILITATES MORE
LEEWAY TO ADJUST SANDY'S TRACK AS NEEDED BASED ON LATER FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PROBLEMATIC
POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE.

WITH REGARD TO SANDY'S ULTIMATE FATE VIS A VIS THE AMPLIFIED POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EAST, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO THE WHOLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z/23 GFS AND GEM
GLOBAL, ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS
AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL
CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX CLOSING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY
HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE
FEATURES LIKE SANDY. THE BLOCKING IS KEY TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STORM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AND
THE NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX OF POLAR ORIGIN. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SPIN UP A TREMENDOUSLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW BACK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LONG ISLAND
INCLUDE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF, 00Z/24 NOGAPS, AND 06Z/24 GLOBAL
HURRICANE MODEL. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ADVENT OF THE
12Z/24 GUIDANCE THAT A LARGE HYBRID LOW IS LIKELY DAY 6, WILL
ADJUST THE FINAL PROGS TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD ROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE MANUAL FORECAST AND DEEPEN THE
PRESSURE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL PROVE TO BE A FACTOR
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGH TIDES MOST
ANOMALOUS FROM THAT EFFECT ALONE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER THE
FULL MOON ON SUNDAY.


CISCO
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Hurricane Sandy models from 10/24/12 - Fred, 10/24/2013, 9:26 am
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