Potential Nor'easter Bomb mid nextweek
Posted by Fred on 3/21/2014, 10:20 am
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014


...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...


WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.
THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR
FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART
AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE
BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN
INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING
THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE
ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS
PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS
MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN
HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS
TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH
OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON
HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO
NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN
TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT
FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING,
INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE
WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A
STORM.

THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THE
THICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES OR
RESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST.
























241
In this thread:
Potential Nor'easter Bomb mid nextweek - Fred, 3/21/2014, 10:20 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.