Re: Jim invited to attend Florida Keys hurricane seminar
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/27/2014, 10:34 pm
I was going to mention that I didn't think Max Mayfield really understood what you do. (but I heard you talking about it on the way home.) I thought he might think you lean toward your own forecast rather than you using the National Hurricane Center's forecast and providing all the local resources people can use to get local information. I'm glad you cleared it up with him. (And that he seems like he knew some of your city picks.)
I don't actually mind too much that other places have their own forecasts, as long as it is very clear that is not the NHC's forecast. I don't like turning on The Weather Channel and them not having the NHC's forecast cone, instead using their own yet not making that very clear to people. They could do their own, but they should make sure people know that is their own. I flip through channel's and you see different error cones. But of course the NHC forecast should be the main focus before and even after someone in the media were to show their own on air. (or anything other than NHC data) It makes it too confusing for people to have their own narrower cone, especially if you are asked to evacuate and are in the NHC cone but not in some narrower cone by some third party. So I guess I really prefer that kind of thing to be less publicized. Maybe keep something like that only online. (which probably mostly is because it would be something you have to pay for in the private sector) I didn't think Max understood that you do provide the NHC data but I'm glad he gets it now.
Max did make a good point about politician's at briefings by emergency managers. Let the people who need to get the information out there speak. The politician's can stay home.
I'm not sure who asked the Sandy question, but after very early on, you were right, the NHC and models were right on for a left turn. It was a spectacular forecast. (Although some government officials did not listen and take it seriously enough, using Irene as an excuse.) Media were talking about how crazy it was in terms of that left turn doesn't usually happen, not about how crazy surprising it was that it happened because it was not expected.
Catch any fish?
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