Re: Caribbean Circle gone as of 1400 on Monday..
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/2/2014, 11:08 pm
The GFS model for example has had this developing beyond the five day time frame. As of the 18Z run, it still did. (somewhat, in the 8 to 10 day time frame impacting southern Florida)
Latest GFS:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area
Since the outlook only covers the next five days, it would not always cover something forecast to develop beyond that time. If there was a very low chance it could develop into a tropical depression within 5 days, they might make it a 10% chance over 5 days, which they had at 8am before they dropped it off at 2pm.
At 8am: "Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for the development of this system as it moves little this week."
That does not talk about beyond then, because it only goes through 5 days.
Graphical outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
For those that do not know, you can access the "Archived Outlooks" in the top right corner in case you want to see what the previous coverage of something was in the outlook. |
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Caribbean Circle gone as of 1400 on Monday.. -
AquaRN,
6/2/2014, 4:45 pm- Re: Caribbean Circle gone as of 1400 on Monday.. - Chris in Tampa, 6/2/2014, 11:08 pm
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