Almost a depression
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/6/2014, 11:44 pm
Unofficially, it was listed as a depression at 8pm in the ATCF system, but still listed as an invest. A special outlook came out at 10:25pm downgrading the chances since recon indicated it may be slightly inland, but still keeping it at 50% being so close to the coast. (I think they put that out because some people may have expected it to become a depression at 11pm.) A lot of convection has recently developed around the center though. It may still have advisories written on it. It may get an upgrade post season instead. Regardless, rain is still the problem whether it officially develops now or not.



ABNT20 KNHC 070225
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated:  Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland.  However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight.  Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart
127
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90L - cypresstx, 6/4/2014, 10:08 am
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