Re: Cat 4 Christina...
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/12/2014, 11:13 pm
The NHC always tries to stress that they are not as good as intensity forecasting than track forecasting. Some of this year's research will try to help with intensity forecasts in the future. Of course Cristina is pretty much in the middle of nowhere and I think that is a pretty big reason. Without recon monitoring it, you have less chance of getting a good handle on it. The Atlantic basin has so much land in the path of storms, and therefore recon flies so much more often because there is the need to get a better handle on things as populations are threatened more often.

I would guess the NHC is using NASA's TRMM satellite for lightning data:
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://thunder.msfc.nasa.gov/lis/index.html
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/overview_dir/lis.html

I just can't find the real time data from the instrument though. I see this "There are two other TRMM instruments, Cloud and Earth Radiant Energy Sensor (CERES) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The data from CERES and LIS are not archived at the Goddard DAAC."
From: http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation/additional/instruments/trmm_instr.shtml

I don't know where the data is.

I see an article about viewing lightning on nighttime satellite data here in this PDF file:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05002.1

It looks like the GOES-R series of satellites will have lightning detection capability when they are eventually launched:
http://www.goes-r.gov/spacesegment/glm.html

As for the mention of the Tampa Bay area in your blog Bobbi, the government might be preparing for hurricanes, but I just don't know about the people. You would have to be about a hundred to remember the last major hurricane that impacted the area. (Not many areas can say that.)

I see signs around town that note where the storm surge could be in a powerful hurricane. Signs so high you can't even get a picture of yourself with it. Seeing a sign like that a mile inland, it's hard for even me to imagine that the water could be that deep here, and I know it can be that and more. We get a lot of weaker storms and reactions I have seen from some people are very laid back when it comes to storms. Those were weak and the media likes to find the craziest people, so I just don't know what the real opinion on the subject is here. They should probably take a poll, even though something like that would be very hard to poll on.

I liked the plan you posted on your blog. Scary, but informative on what a category five hurricane could do here. (Of course even a category 1 hurricane can do a lot of damage here. We are all so low.)
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Cat 4 Christina... - BobbiStorm, 6/12/2014, 10:08 am
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