| Happy Fourth. 3 day track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/085719.shtml?3day?large#contents HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...ARTHUR MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 75.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM E OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO WOODS HOLE. THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE * ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN WAVES NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT OREGON INLET RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 975.5 MB...28.81 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM EDT AND 900 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN WTNT31 KNHC 040858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...ARTHUR MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 75.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM E OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO WOODS HOLE. THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE * ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN WAVES NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT OREGON INLET RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 975.5 MB...28.81 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM EDT AND 900 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 Arthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the cloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around the northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air works its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force Hurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of 91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial intensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on a measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station at Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual weakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete extratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova Scotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North Atlantic. Arthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an advancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good agreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before moving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur is expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble mean at days 4 and 5. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 36.0N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan |