Re: 08W.NEOGURI expected to get. winds of 140kts/161.109mph not 150kts/172.617mph.
Posted by hanna on 7/6/2014, 8:34 am
From the JMA
TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 6 July 2014

Analyses at 06/09 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N18°40'(18.7°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE650km(350NM)
NW440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 06/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°10'(20.2°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N26°00'(26.0°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°50'(30.8°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)





From the Navy & the JWTC.





From the Pacific Storm Tracker.

5:45 p.m. Sunday, July 6, Japan time:The news is a bit better for Okinawa - but not much - than  previously posted.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast shows Typhoon Neoguri still tracking west-northwest, about 600 miles south-southeast of Okinawa, and now projected to pass about 50 miles west of Kadena Air Base about 3 p.m. Tuesday.

It will still be a screaming meany, packing Category 5-equivalent winds, 161-mph sustained and 196-mph gusts at its center.

But the track has varied west by 20 miles since our last update. That said, remain vigilant, finish preparing for the worst and keep your eyes on your unit's Facebook page and commanders' access channels.

An update to the wind timeline will be provided when it becomes available from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.
                                 ________________________

1:30 p.m. Sunday, July 6, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 in advance of the expected arrival of Typhoon Neoguri late Wednesday or early Thursday, the base reported on its Facebook page this morning.

Neoguri is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass the southwestern Kyushu base 63 miles southeast at around 11 p.m. Wednesday, still packing a significant Category 2-equivalent punch, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it crashes ashore over Kyushu.

No change to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni's TCCOR, but the southwestern Honshu base is forecast to receive Neoguri 12 miles northwest at 8 a.m. Thursday. And Neoguri will still be a strong Category 1-equivalent storm, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

It's a fast-moving storm, so it should be out of the Kyushu-Sanyo area in relatively short order before heading over the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

As for Okinawa, which remains in TCCOR 3, JTWC has Neoguri intensifying into a super typhoon early Monday morning and reaching its peak strength, 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts, just as Neoguri approaches Okinawa. Again, that's equal to a Katrina-strength Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. If those wind speeds hold, this would be the strongest typhoon to hit Okinawa since Bart in late September 1999.

Though Neoguri is taking a more west-northwest track than previous forecasts indicated, it will still make a broad, wide curve and buzz Okinawa some 30 miles to its west with the inner portions of the more dangerous east quadrants. Maximum 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts are forecast for mid-day by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight. No indication of any variation in Neoguri's track other than maybe a couple of miles, a weather flight official said.

Here's the latest wind forecast timeline from the Kadena weather flight:

   40-mph sustained winds, from 9 p.m. Monday.
   58-mph sustained winds, from 7 a.m. Tuesday.
   Maximum 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Tuesday.
   Winds diminishing below 58 mph, from 9 p.m. Tuesday.
   Winds diminishing below 40 mph, from 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Again, the only good news is that Neoguri is a fast-moving storm; at 9 a.m. Sunday, it was 670 miles south-southeast of Kadena and rumbling west-northwest at 18 mph over the previous six hours. That is relatively quick, given Neoguri's breadth and footprint.

Good to see folks heading to the commissary and Exchange early; now is the time to finish all the storm preparation. Better to be safe and have too many supplies than be sorry and not have enough.

A very important tip especially for newcomers: There's a very good chance Neoguri's "eye," currently 40 miles across, will pass over the island. Don't be fooled into thinking the storm's over and it's safe to go outside. In fact, until the All-Clear/revert to seasonal TCCOR-4 is announced, that time and any time are the worst times to be outside. Yes, the sun will be sunny and calm will resume its sway. Then, out of the blue, the back side of the storm will hit, and most times with winds more vicious than before.

If you are interested there is more to read here: http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/typhoon-08w-neoguri-12-1.291786
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08W.NEOGURI expected to be a Super Typhoon - hanna, 7/5/2014, 7:48 am
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